US stock market futures on September 18, 2025, showed gains following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, its first rate cut of the year. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.69%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.86%, and Nasdaq futures gained around 1.05%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures reaching record highs.
Market optimism was driven by the Fed signaling two more rate cuts this year, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned about labor market weakness and the uncertainty behind further easing.
After the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut in September 2025, mortgage rates have shown a downward trend but are not guaranteed to keep falling further. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stood around 6.13% to 6.35%, touching lows not seen in nearly a year. However, mortgage rates are influenced more by the 10-year Treasury yield and broader economic factors than directly by the Fed’s federal funds rate.
The small-cap Russell 2000 futures climbed 1.5%, expected to benefit from a low interest-rate environment.
Key futures movements on Sept 18, 2025:
- Dow futures up approximately 0.69%
- S&P 500 futures up about 0.86%
- Nasdaq 100 futures up about 1.05%
- Russell 2000 futures up 1.5%
The positive futures sentiment followed the Federal Reserve’s rate cut to a range between 4% and 4.25%, with the market weighing upcoming labor market and inflation data for further direction.
How did Federal Reserve rate cuts influence market trends
Federal Reserve rate cuts generally have a significant influence on market trends by signaling a more accommodative monetary policy aimed at supporting economic growth. When the Fed cuts rates:
- Borrowing costs decrease, encouraging consumer spending and business investment, which can boost corporate earnings and equity market performance.
- Lower rates make bonds less attractive as yields fall, leading investors to shift funds into stocks and riskier assets like real estate and commodities.
- Growth sectors such as technology, real estate, and consumer discretionary often benefit the most from rate cuts.
- A weaker U.S. dollar usually follows, supporting emerging market equities and making imports cheaper, which can help some sectors.
- Increased global liquidity and improved risk appetite tend to lift stock market valuations and encourage foreign investment in emerging markets.
- While rate cuts are positive for stocks in general, they often occur in response to slowing economic conditions, so the positive market impact may be tempered by concerns about growth and earnings in the short term.
Recent research shows that the Fed’s rate cuts in 2025 led to optimism in U.S. and global markets, including significant inflows into emerging markets like India, where stocks and currencies benefited from lower U.S. yields. The Fed’s signals of additional rate cuts can sustain market rallies, although the medium-to-long-term market trend depends on economic growth and corporate earnings.
Top US stock market gainers and losers in pre-market trading today
U.S. equities are showing some sharp moves ahead of the opening bell, with both blue-chip names and smaller growth stocks making headlines.
Top US stock market futures gainers and losers today, September 18, 2025, include:
Top Gainers:
- American Express (AXP) up 2.74%
- Caterpillar (CAT) up 2.10%
- Visa (V) up 1.66%
- Procter & Gamble (PG) up 1.44%
- Coca-Cola (KO) up 1.20%
Top Losers:
- Nvidia (NVDA) down 2.60%
- Intel (INTC) down 1.50%
- Home Depot (HD) down 1.13%
- Amazon (AMZN) down 1.03%
- 3M (MMM) down 0.86%
These reflect the leading price moves in futures trading for the day, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts and overall market sentiment.
Mortgage rates, Treasury yields, and gold shift after Fed’s first 2025 rate cut
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has edged down to around 6.35%, marking one of the lowest levels in nearly a year. Homebuyers are cautiously optimistic, as the drop is making financing slightly more affordable compared with the peak above 7% seen in 2023–24.
Shorter-term loans are also seeing relief. The 15-year fixed mortgage now hovers near 5.5%–5.6%, while certain adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) are priced even lower. Mortgage applications jumped immediately after the Fed announcement, reflecting pent-up demand from buyers waiting for cheaper borrowing conditions.
That said, analysts warn the connection between Fed rate cuts and mortgage rates is not direct. Mortgage rates are primarily tied to movements in the 10-year Treasury yield and investor sentiment in the bond market. If yields rise again, mortgage rates could follow suit despite the Fed’s dovish stance.
Treasury yields
Bond markets showed a mixed reaction to the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut. Instead of sliding, yields actually nudged higher:
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.07%, reflecting investor caution about inflation staying sticky.
- The 2-year yield, closely watched as a proxy for Fed policy expectations, climbed to 3.51%, suggesting markets are bracing for more uncertainty in the short run.
- The 30-year yield also moved up, reaching nearly 4.67%, which affects long-term borrowing costs from mortgages to corporate debt.
The uptick highlights that while the Fed is signaling support for growth, bond investors remain wary of inflation risks and government borrowing needs, both of which can keep yields elevated.
Gold respond to the Fed cut?
The current trend in gold prices after the Federal Reserve’s recent rate adjustment shows gold trading at around $3,700 per ounce, with the price reaching historic highs this month. After the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut, gold briefly hit an all-time high of approximately $3,704 per ounce before slightly pulling back to around $3,665.36 per ounce on September 18, 2025.
Despite the small retreat, gold has gained over 10.5% in the past month and is up about 41.7% compared to the same period last year, reflecting strong investor demand driven by Fed easing expectations, geopolitical tensions, and inflation concerns.
The lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, and the Fed’s signals of gradual rate cuts boost gold’s appeal as a safe haven.
However, some caution remains with the Fed adopting a meeting-by-meeting approach to rate decisions, and gold prices are influenced by factors including the strength of the U.S. dollar and global economic outlook. Analysts remain bullish, with some forecasting gold prices to reach $3,675 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially $4,000 by mid-2026.
Nvidia stock dips as China widens probe into AI chips
Nvidia shares slipped in pre-market trading, falling about 1.6%, after reports that Chinese regulators are extending an antitrust review into the company’s AI chip business. Investors are worried the probe could slow Nvidia’s sales momentum in one of its key overseas markets, at a time when global demand for AI infrastructure remains red-hot.
Despite this setback, Wall Street analysts still see Nvidia as the leading beneficiary of the ongoing AI boom, with its data center revenue growing at record pace. Traders will be watching closely for updates on export controls and China’s regulatory stance, which could influence Nvidia’s ability to keep up its historic growth trajectory.
Tesla jumps after Musk buys millions of shares
Tesla stock surged more than 7% in pre-market trading after CEO Elon Musk disclosed the purchase of over 2.5 million Tesla shares, sending a strong signal of confidence in the EV maker’s future. The move comes at a critical time, as Tesla battles slowing deliveries, intensifying competition in China, and ongoing questions about its Cybertruck ramp-up.
Investor sentiment improved sharply after Musk’s purchase, with bulls betting that the worst of Tesla’s demand slowdown may be behind it. The market will now look toward upcoming delivery reports and AI-driven initiatives like Tesla’s Full Self-Driving updates for confirmation that growth can accelerate again.
Apple climbs on strong iPhone 17 demand
Apple shares gained roughly 1.1% in early trading, fueled by reports of robust demand for the newly launched iPhone 17 lineup. Delivery times for several models have already stretched into late October, suggesting demand is outpacing supply, particularly for higher-end versions.
The upbeat news comes as Apple seeks to re-ignite growth in its hardware segment while also expanding services revenue. With consumers willing to pay a premium for the latest devices, investors are optimistic that Apple’s September quarter could surprise to the upside, especially if iPhone 17 sales outpace early Wall Street forecasts.
Oracle rallies on cloud growth optimism
Oracle stock rose nearly 4%, riding a wave of optimism around its growing footprint in the cloud computing market. Investors have become increasingly bullish on Oracle’s ability to win enterprise customers, particularly as AI adoption drives up demand for scalable cloud services.
Analysts note that Oracle’s partnerships in AI infrastructure, including collaborations with Nvidia, are helping it carve out space against bigger rivals like Microsoft and Amazon Web Services. The stock’s rally reflects growing belief that Oracle may emerge as one of the under-appreciated winners in the AI revolution.
Microsoft holds steady, riding AI momentum
Microsoft didn’t make the same sharp moves as some of its tech peers in pre-market trading, but investor sentiment around the stock remains firmly positive. As one of the “Magnificent Seven,” Microsoft continues to benefit from strong demand for AI-powered products, led by its Azure cloud platform and the integration of OpenAI’s technology across its software suite.
Traders are watching for updates on Microsoft’s enterprise contracts and AI monetization efforts, particularly in Office 365 and GitHub Copilot, to gauge whether growth will accelerate in the next few quarters. Even without a big pre-market swing, the stock remains a cornerstone play in the ongoing AI trade.