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postUS stocks wavered early Wednesday as Wall Street prepared to wrap up an eventful, roller-coaster trading year with sizable gains.
The blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), S&P 500 (^GSPC), and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) all lost around 0.1%.
After three straight losing sessions that have dimmed hopes for a “Santa Claus rally,” Wall Street is nevertheless ready to celebrate its gains in 2025. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up over 17% this year, on track for its sixth year of 15%-plus gains over the past seven. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) has paced gains with an over 20% rise, while the Dow (^DJI) is up over 13%.
But the year was not without its challenges. The Nasdaq briefly entered a bear market a little over eight months ago, and the S&P stood on the brink of one after President Trump imposed his most sweeping tariffs in April before largely backtracking.
Wall Street didn’t look back from there, despite blips amid concerns over those tariffs, as well as geopolitical developments, the health of the US economy, and — perhaps most of all — soaring AI-fueled valuations.
The outlook for 2026 calls for more optimism. Every Wall Street forecaster tracked by Bloomberg is predicting that stocks will rally for a fourth consecutive year. But plenty of risks remain: The AI boom could falter, the economy could surprise, and the US president remains a wild card.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate path is also in focus into next year, with the divisions that have gripped the central bank in 2025 likely to continue — and with a new chair set to replace Jerome Powell by mid-year. Minutes from the central bank’s December meeting, released Tuesday, showed this month’s decision was a close call — and that many officials felt it could be “some time” before another rate cut. Overall, 85% of bets for January’s meeting are on the Fed holding steady at current levels.
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US stocks waver Wednesday morning to open last trading session of the year
The US stock market wavered in the first minutes of trading on Wednesday as Wall Street looked to step out of an eventful, roller-coaster trading year with sizable gains and into 2026.
The blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed roughly 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) held just barely below flat after briefly crossing into the green.
Initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 27, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Wednesday morning, fell to 199,000 from the previous week’s revised 215,000 claims. Continuing claims fell to 1.86 million from 1.91 million.
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Jobless claims fall to 199,000 in surprise to the downside
Initial jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 27 fell by 16,000 from the previous week to 199,000 in the last major economic data indicator of the year.
The figures come as a surprise to the downside for Wall Street. Economists had predicted that claims would rise to 218,000 from 214,000, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Continuing claims, which count the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits, also fell to 1.86 million from 1.91 million in another surprise to the downside. Economists had predicted the level would fall less steeply to 1.90 million.
The four-week moving average of claims ticked upward to 218,750 from last week’s 217,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data release. Claims for the previous week ended Dec. 20 were revised to 215,000 from the originally stated 214,000.
The data release seemed to have little-to-no impact on predictions of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its January meeting, with traders continuing to price in an 85% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch.
Though the Fed’s dual mandate focuses on both maximum employment and stable prices, the Jay Powell-chaired body spent 2025 largely basing its cues on the labor market over inflation data.
The unemployment data release marks the last major piece of economic data that will be published in 2025.
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Sugar headed for largest annual decline in 8 years
Sugar (SB=F) prices are headed for their largest annual decline since 2017 as ample production around the world has pushed supply over demand.
The primary futures contract for sugar futures traded in New York, Sugar has shed roughly 21% in what has been largely a tough year for agricultural commodities.
Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of the sweetener commodity, has maintained high production levels, while fellow powerhouse India has managed to notch a comeback in its production after seeing levels fall sharply last year due to adverse weather conditions.
Elsewhere in the agricultural world, other “soft” commodities like cocoa, potatoes, and rice have all seen their prices plunge.
Futures contracts on cocoa (CC=F) and rice have fallen by 48% and 32%, respectively, while prices on potatoes have shed more than 77% since the year started, according to pricing data from Trading Economics.
Livestock and coffee have been notable exceptions to that rule. Feeder cattle and live cattle have gained 33% and 20%, respectively, since the year began, while coffee (KC=F) futures have picked up 10%.
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US dollar set for worst year since 2017
The US dollar (DX-Y.NYB) edged lower on Wednesday, set to cap off its weakest year since 2017, as President Trump’s tariff agenda fuels concerns about the US economy and a more dovish Federal Reserve in 2026 adds pressure to the greenback.
The dollar index has dropped over 9% year to date, according to Yahoo Finance data. Strategists broadly think that weakness will persist next year as many of the worries that drove it lower remain in play.
The story was different for the euro (^XDE), which gained 13%, and the pound (^XDB), which gained 7% on the year. Both currencies are on track for their biggest yearly gains in eight years.
Bloomberg reports:
Read more here.
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The market’s biggest winners and losers in 2025
Bloomberg’s Carmen Reinicke has a good look today at some of the market’s biggest winners and losers this year.
Some are familiar — Palantir (PLTR) is prominently featured as a winner, for instance. Others might turn heads. Did you know that Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), and Seagate Technology (STX) were three of the top four performers in the S&P 500 this year?
Read the full rundown here.
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Recapping a wild year in markets
Our Myles Udland is out with a great recap of the year in markets, featuring a month-by-month look at 2025’s biggest stories and market-moving events.
He writes:
There’s a lot more in there. Go read it.
