Sensex, Nifty fall: Stock market analysts reveal winners & losers of Budget 2025

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fell in Saturday’s trade, even as the Budget 2025 came up with a slew of announcements to boost consumption. With the economic expansion slowing over the past two quarters, the newly announced measures aim to reignite momentum, said anlaysts, who appreciated the fact that the government offered support to middle class and, thus consumption, by revising income tax slabs. That said, they felt only a marginal increase in capex target for FY26 was a bit negative. Overall, analysts called the Budget 2025 pro- middle class, pro- MSMEs and pro-rural.

Pankaj Pandey, Head of Research at ICICI Direct said the Union Budget 2025-26 was clearly a confluence of consumption push through personal income tax benefit and capex moderation, with fiscal prudence taking precedence over growth. 

“We note that FY26 capex allocation of Rs 11.2 lakh crore, growth of 9.8 per cent YoY over FY25RE is a bit modest, albeit, clearly reflects the government commitment towards fiscal prudence, despite growth moderation. To encapsulate, given the consumption focused budget, we might see pickup in consumption pockets given the tax relief, while capex space is likely to witness only a selective move, ahead,” he said.

Apurva Sheth of SAMCO Securities also felt the modest increase in capex outlay to Rs 11.2 lakh crore in FY26 from from Rs 11.11 lakh crore in the ongoing financial year was much lower than expectations. “The governments focus until now was on infrastructure and capex seems to be taking a hit due to political compulsions and freebie politics. With this modest increase the railways, defense, infrastructure and engineering is likely to take a hit. On the other hand, FMCG, auto, and consumer durables are likely to be in the limelight going forward,” he said.

The FY26 fiscal deficit budgeted at 4.4 per cent was in line with market expectations and that FY26 net borrowing at Rs 11.54 lakh crore was lower than FY25 net borrowing, anlaysts such as Dhawal Dalal of Edelweiss MF noted.

Manish Jain of Mirae Asset Capital Markets said the Budget was positive for FMCG, consumption, retail, real estate, auto and new age companies. It was not as much positive for banking, he said, as rise in gross borrowings is negative for banks as yield could rise that could impact treasury income. 

“With rationalisation in direct taxes, one needs to see how government capex targets are set. Move in personal taxes and reduction in BCD in consumer electronics (like flat panels) to boost consumer electronics. Positive for shipbuilding with Maritime Development Fund outlay of Rs 25,000, exemption of BCD on raw material and equipment and benefits to ship leasing units announced if they are in GIFT city. Announcements on PM Gati Shakti Data and Maps are positive for logistics players,” he said. 

The BSE Sensex though cut most of its post-Budget losses and was trading at 77,413.95, down 86.62 points or 0.11 per cent. Nifty stood at 23,463.30, down 45.10 points or 0.19 per cent.
Sandeep Nayak ED & CEO of Retail Broking Centrum Broking was happy with the continuation of the fiscal discipline path, with fiscal deficit for FY26 pegged at 4.4 per cent of GDP seen as positive for the economy. 

“Capital expenditure spend at marginally less than last year’s estimate is a mild negative. On the reforms front, a simplified tax code to be unveiled should bring more cheer to tax payers. Insurance FDI increased to 100 per cent is a big positive. The Budget has focused on increasing the disposal income of the middle class with increase in the taxable income limit to Rs 12 lacs from the existing Rs 7 lacs,” he said.

Calling the Budget as a ‘middle class sukino bhavantu’ budget which should boost consumption. Revival of urban consumption will have a positive multiplier effect on the economy helping mitigate the effect of slowdown seen in the last couple of quarters.”

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking said the Budget charted a transformative path toward ‘Viksit Bharat’ with a balanced focus on economic growth, social welfare, and structural reforms. 

“With strategic investments in infrastructure, power, financial services, and urban development, the budget fosters long-term economic resilience. Strengthening MSMEs, manufacturing, and agriculture reflects its commitment to inclusive prosperity. Incentives for research, AI, and startups position India for global leadership in innovation. Tax relief for the middle class and simplified compliance frameworks further reinforce a pro-growth, investment-friendly, and forward-looking economic vision,” he said.

Jain of Mirae Asset Capital Markets said the announcement of daycare cancer centres in district hospitals is positive for regional diagnostics companies. Promotion in medical tourism is positive for large hospitals. “Increase in FDI limit in insurance sector to 100% is positive for investments in the sector. Positive move on critical minerals and BCD exemption for EV batteries to promote EV battery manufacturing in India and also positive for battery chemical manufactures,” Jain said.

Divam Sharma- Co- Founder and Fund Manager at Green Portfolio PMS said: “We see this as a decent budget since last two budgets- full budget and interim budget last year were populist ones. Although the government has cut down capital expenditure to 10.8 lac crores, this was a pro- middle class, pro- msme and pro-rural budget.”