Harvard economist Jason Furman has highlighted India’s remarkable economic outperformance in a new comparative growth chart shared on X (formerly Twitter), offering one of the clearest visualisations yet of how major economies have fared relative to their pre-pandemic trajectories.
“How some geopolitically relevant economies are doing relative to their pre-COVID trends,” Furman wrote, posting a graph that compares real GDP as a percentage of pre-pandemic trends for the US, Euro Area, China, Russia and India from 2019 to Q3 2025.
The illustration shows a striking divergence: while most economies continue to exhibit pandemic-era scarring, India’s GDP shoots above trend, climbing toward +5% by mid-2025 and standing alone as the only major economy meaningfully exceeding its long-term path.
Deep pandemic slump and a uneven recovery
According to the chart, all five economies plunged into negative territory in 2020.
- The Euro Area fell the steepest, to –25%,
- China dropped to –10%,
- The US to –5%,
- India to –5%,
- Russia to roughly –8%.
But their recoveries since then have markedly diverged.
The US rebounded quickly, supported by aggressive fiscal interventions such as the American Rescue Plan. Furman previously credited these measures with preventing “scarring” and helping push the US to about +2% above trend by 2025. Yet even this performance is overshadowed by India’s extraordinary ascent.
India surges ahead
From its 2020 low, India climbed past pre-Covid trendlines by 2022, hit +3% in 2024, and is projected to reach +5% by Q3 2025. This, Furman stressed, is not a one-off rebound but the result of structural strengths.
“India’s policies fostered domestic consumption and investment amid global headwinds,” he noted on X, pointing to digital infrastructure, investment reforms, and a stable macroeconomic environment. He contrasted this with challenges faced by other major economies:
- China’s recovery remains weighed down by prolonged zero-Covid measures and a real estate crisis, leaving its line hovering at –5% by 2025.
- Russia remains stuck near –8%, affected by sanctions after the Ukraine invasion.
- The Euro Area, still around –3%, continues to manage energy shocks, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
Even in the US, Furman flagged the sustainability risks: 92% of first-half 2025 growth came from AI-driven data center investments, raising concerns about the narrowness of the expansion.
Global agencies echo optimism on India
Major international rating agencies have mirrored Furman’s optimism.
ICRA expects India’s GDP growth to remain strong at 7% in Q2 FY26, following 7.8% in Q1 FY26, with GVA forecast at 7.1%. A moderation in services and agriculture, the agency noted, will be compensated by industrial growth surging to a five-quarter high of 7.8%.
Moody’s Ratings also reiterated India’s leadership position in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Greater China). It projects GDP growth at 7% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, supported by robust domestic demand despite global uncertainty. Across APAC, the agency expects growth to hover around 3.4% in 2026, with India remaining the clear outperformer.
Economists increasingly describe India’s trajectory as a model for other developing economies. Strong digital infrastructure, rising manufacturing supported by production-linked incentives, a young workforce, and steady services exports have helped maintain 7-8% annual growth, IMF estimates show.