Buyers regain control amid structural rebound
From our previous analysis on November 5, where we anticipated a pullback into the 25,400 support region as a potential accumulation zone, Nasdaq has delivered precisely that setup. After sweeping liquidity below 25,000, price reacted strongly within the bullish order block, confirming the area as active institutional demand.
This rebound marks a key structural shift — from reactive selling pressure to proactive buying interest — suggesting that institutions are reloading positions after the retracement phase. The latest rally underscores the depth of this demand zone and signals that the broader uptrend structure is attempting to reassert itself.
Market narrative: AI optimism and yield relief support rebound
Market sentiment improved as AI-related earnings continued to outperform expectations, supporting renewed optimism across the tech-heavy Nasdaq. This came alongside a dip in Treasury yields, easing valuation pressure on growth and innovation stocks.
The overall tone of the market remains cautiously constructive — investors are leaning into risk again, encouraged by resilient earnings and speculation of a Fed rate cut in early 2026. While macro risks remain, short-term momentum clearly favors continuation, particularly as the index reclaims prior inefficiencies and invalidates nearby bearish fair value gaps.
Technical outlook
Current structure
On the chart, Nasdaq has successfully reacted from the 24,900–25,100 bullish order block, reclaiming structure above the 25,400 fair value gap. Price is now testing the bearish order block near 25,600–25,700, which serves as a critical decision zone.
If buyers can absorb this area and close decisively above it, it will confirm further strength and validate the broader bullish continuation phase projected in our earlier analysis.
Bullish scenario: Breakout toward 26,000
- A confirmed breakout above 25,700 sets the stage for a continuation toward 25,900–26,100.
- Sustained closes above 25,400 will solidify market structure and signal institutional accumulation.
- Momentum acceleration could extend targets toward 26,400, especially if yields remain stable.
Key Supports: 25,200 / 24,950.
Resistance Zones: 25,700 / 26,100.
Bearish scenario: Short-term distribution and pullback risk
- A rejection at the bearish order block (25,600–25,700) could invite renewed selling.
- A break below 25,200 would open the path for retesting 24,900–24,800.
- Loss of structure below the bullish order block invalidates the continuation setup and reintroduces downside risk.
Conclusion
Nasdaq continues to respect the structural roadmap we outlined earlier this month. Buyers have reasserted control at institutional demand, reclaiming critical fair value gaps and defending trend structure. Unless 25,200 gives way, the path of least resistance remains to the upside — with eyes on 26,000 and beyond.