Energy names outperformed. Chevron rose 1.71% to $160.00, supported by firm oil prices and investor rotation into defensives. Caterpillar and JPMorgan both advanced 0.48%, signaling some resilience among industrials and financials. On the downside, UnitedHealth was off 1.87% to $341.39, while Travelers and 3M dropped 1.53% and 1.04%, respectively, dragging on the index.
What Will the Federal Reserve Signal on Rates and Inflation?
Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut Wednesday—what would be the Fed’s first since December. According to CME FedWatch, futures show a 100% probability of the move. Traders are watching for signs of additional easing from Chair Jerome Powell. Former PIMCO executive Paul McCulley expects Powell to strike a dovish tone, possibly laying the groundwork for up to 100 basis points of cuts, citing disinflation and a stabilizing labor market.
Will U.S.-China Trade Talks and Tariff Threats Reignite Volatility?
Geopolitical risks remain on traders’ radar. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there’s a “framework” deal for TikTok, while also expressing optimism that further talks with China could ease tariff tensions ahead of a November deadline. President Trump also gave a positive read on recent discussions, though U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed negotiations have been “deferred,” leaving open the risk of renewed trade friction.
Market Outlook
With a quarter-point cut widely expected, attention will turn to Powell’s tone on future moves. A cautious but dovish message could keep equities supported near record levels. However, hesitation or signs of internal Fed division may pressure rate-sensitive stocks. Watch how Dow leaders like UnitedHealth, Salesforce, and JPMorgan react to gauge post-Fed sentiment across key sectors.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.