A crypto chartmaster shares why bitcoin could fall up to 50% after its massive comeback — and why he's bullish on these 4 altcoins in the long term

  • Cryptocurrencies have made a huge comeback in 2023 during a broad market rally.
  • Chartmaker Forrest Przybysz shared his 2023 price outlook for bitcoin and ether.
  • Here are four altcoins that Przybysz is most optimistic about with bitcoin at risk of falling.

Bitcoin can continue its impressive rally, but will eventually retest its lows and could potentially lose half its value, according to a self-described cryptocurrency evangelist.

The price of the world’s biggest crypto has risen 48% year-to-date to an eight-month-high of $25,000 during a broader rebound for cryptos and other risk assets. Ether, the second-largest digital asset, has also roared back to life and is up 44% in 2023 to its highest level since mid-September. 

But while both tokens appear to have upside ahead, ether currently looks like a better bet from a risk-reward standpoint, said Forrest Przybysz, the founder and CEO of crypto-focused firm Sistine Research, in a recent interview with Insider.

What’s next for bitcoin and ether?

Bitcoin is approaching a key technical resistance range of $28,000 to $32,000, according to Przybysz’s charts. While the token could climb another 28% if investors continue to embrace risk during a wider market rally, Przybysz told Insider that bitcoin is likely to give up its gains.

BTC chart Forrest Feb 23

Bitcoin will run into technical resistance in the high $20,000s and low $30,000s, which could send it back under $20,000.

Forrest Przybysz, Sistine Research

If bitcoin’s rally stalls, Przybysz’s charts show that it would likely fall up to 24% to its nearest support level of $19,000, though a 50% decline to $12,700 is possible if the token can’t hold that crucial mark. And in a worst-case scenario, bitcoin could slide to levels last seen in late 2020.

Meanwhile, ether has solid support in the mid-$1,300s and could reach $2,000 or even $2,700 by the late first quarter or early second quarter, Przybysz said. In other words, while Przybysz’s charts also indicate that ether could fall 20%, the token’s potential upside of 57% is double that of bitcoin.

ETH chart Forrest Feb 23

Ether is trading above technical support but could rise substantially.

Forrest Przybysz, Sistine Research

Despite their strong showings so far this year, bitcoin and ether are still about 64% below their all-time highs. And although Przybysz doesn’t see bitcoin or ether breaking their price records before late 2024, he said what has broken is the bear market’s structure, which is a solid start.

“I do think that there’s potentially another leg up in crypto and then probably followed by a return to some of the lows that we’ve seen,” Przybysz told Insider. “And then once we get closer to the end of 2023 — maybe it’s 2024 — we could start to see some buying behavior come in.”

4 tokens to target instead of bitcoin

While bitcoin looks like a risky bet at current levels, Przybysz said that four smaller cryptos look attractive: ether (ETH), polygon (MATIC), quant (QNT), and chainlink (LINK). These altcoins have upside despite the brutal crypto winter of this past year, he said.

“There will be a lot of lower-cap cryptocurrencies — altcoins — that probably do put in all-time highs, just one-offs that decide to deviate and decouple,” Przybysz said. “We’ve already had some that are performing decently, potentially putting in new highs already. But those are pretty sparse — far and few between.”

Below are the four cryptocurrencies that the chartmaster and research firm head is most bullish about right now, along with the symbol, market capitalization, and thesis for each.