Newmont (NEM) has turned a corner on profitability, with earnings now in positive territory and its net profit margin on the rise over the past year. Over the last five years, the company’s earnings have grown by 9.5% per year, and forecasts suggest revenue and earnings will rise at 3.9% and 2.6% per year, respectively, although these are both below the US market averages of 10.1% and 15.5%. With valuation signals looking attractive and no notable risks flagged, investors are likely to focus on the company’s reward indicators and strengthening profit trend, even as growth forecasts remain modest compared to the broader market.
See our full analysis for Newmont.
Now that the numbers are in, the next section compares the results with the prevailing market narratives. This highlights where the facts reinforce or challenge the current story.
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Newmont trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7x, a substantial discount compared to both the US Metals and Mining industry average of 22.7x and immediate peers at 36x and 25.2x. This gap puts Newmont well below sector norms on a relative valuation basis.
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According to the analysts’ consensus view, this below-average multiple, combined with a five-year annual earnings growth rate of 9.5%, strongly supports the argument that the market is undervaluing Newmont’s profitability and future cash flows.
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Consensus notes that such a large valuation gap is rare for a company showing improving net profit margin and high-quality earnings, as also cited in EDGAR filings.
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This divergence challenges those who expect the discount to signal risk, especially since no notable red flags or elevated risks have been recently flagged.
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Consensus suggests the numbers may be telling a story the market is missing. See how the full consensus narrative measures up to the recent earnings in context. 📊 Read the full Newmont Consensus Narrative.
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With Newmont’s current share price at $83.37 and the only permitted analyst price target at $102.62, the gap stands at $19.25 or around 23%. This points to a valuation disconnect between where Newmont trades and consensus expectations.
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Consensus analysts highlight that future value rests on hitting $6.4 billion in earnings and trading at a forward P/E of 14.0x by 2028, with estimates for shares outstanding projected to fall by 3.51% annually. Each factor reinforces the premise that the stock remains fundamentally underpriced.
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Consensus narrative underscores that analyst models incorporating modest revenue growth and narrowing profit margins still justify a price well above today’s levels, provided execution remains solid and capex does not unexpectedly increase.
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The EDGAR summary further notes analyst disagreement, with bullish targets up to $104.0 and caution from more bearish targets down at $58.0, but the central scenario is that the current market price does not fully reflect the company’s earnings trajectory.
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Analysts forecast Newmont’s revenue will grow 1.6% annually over the next three years, with profit margins expected to move modestly lower from 30.3% to 29.7%. While these growth rates underperform the broader U.S. market, the company’s high quality of earnings and margin stability offer a measure of downside protection.
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The consensus narrative argues that persistent global inflation and robust gold demand should sustain higher realized gold prices, providing Newmont with a tailwind for stable revenues and strong cash flow.
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Supporting this, consensus points to ongoing productivity enhancements and the successful integration of acquired assets as drivers for margin resilience, particularly if operational efficiency projects deliver as expected.
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At the same time, critics watch for possible margin compression from asset quality decline or cost increases, but current trends remain supportive of the case for steady long-term financial health.
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To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Newmont on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you’ll be alerted when the story evolves.
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A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Newmont.
Newmont’s revenue and earnings outlook continues to underperform market averages. Growth forecasts are well below peers despite improving profitability and no major risk signals.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NEM.
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