Is Invest 91L headed toward NC? See spaghetti models, current path

view original post

The National Hurricane Center expects Invest 91L to strengthen into a tropical depression by the weekend as it moves west across the Atlantic.

AccuWeather forecasters said Sept. 5 that 91L has a “high risk of organizing into a full-fledged tropical storm and then strengthening into a hurricane before reaching the Caribbean by the middle of next week.”

The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Gabrielle.

➤ Track all active storms

➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location

Spaghetti models for Invest 91L: See possible paths

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.➤ Track Invest 91L

Where is Invest 91L headed? Track path

Recent satellite imagery suggests the system continues to slowly become better organized with shower and thunderstorm activity along its eastern periphery, the National Hurricane Center said.

Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development of the system and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

Residents in the Lesser Antilles and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system as it approaches from the east by the middle of next week.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 60%.

• Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90%.

Will Hurricane Lorena impact North Carolina?

Hurricane Lorena was undergoing weakening in the Pacific Ocean as a Category 1 storm the morning of Sept. 5 but is still poised to bring heavy rainfall and the chance of flash flooding to parts of the Southwestern United States, forecasters said.

Lorena’s center will remain far to the south and west, and its remnant moisture is not expected to reach North Carolina. While the storm’s moisture may influence weather patterns in the Southwest, the National Hurricane Center does not anticipate any direct impacts on the East Coast from Lorena.

Residents in North Carolina can continue to monitor forecasts, but at this time, the state is not at risk from Lorena’s rainfall or winds.

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lorena

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Prepare now for hurricanes

Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. “Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period,” NOAA recommends.

• Develop an evacuation plan: If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.

• Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you’re going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.

• Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance check-up to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn’t cover flooding, so you’ll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.

• Create a family communication plan: NOAA said to take the time now to write down your hurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.

• Strengthen your home: Now is the time to improve your home’s ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings.

North Carolina radar

North Carolina weather watches and warnings

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text

Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Will Invest 91L become Tropical Storm Gabrielle? See spaghetti models