CHONGQING, CHINA – AUGUST 08: In this photo illustration, a smartphone displays the logo of John Deere (NYSE: DE), an American corporation that manufactures agricultural, forestry, and construction machinery, in front of a screen showing the company’s latest stock market chart on August 8, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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Deere (NYSE:DE) is set to release its earnings on Thursday, August 14, 2025. Historically, Deere’s stock has demonstrated a balanced distribution in its one-day performance following earnings announcements over the past five years. In 50% of cases, the stock experienced a negative one day reuturn, with a median negative of -3.1%, while the other 50% reflected a positive one day return, with a median positive of 5.2%. This information indicates that Deere can be a volatile stock for traders focused on short-term events.
Conversely, for long-term investors, the situation is considerably different. In the last five years, Deere’s stock has increased by 100%, rising from approximately $255 in early January 2021 to its current price of about $510. This substantially outperforms the S&P 500, which recorded a gain of around 70% during the same timeframe. This suggests that while Deere may not be an ideal stock for trading based on earnings reactions, it is better suited for a buy-and-hold approach.
Nevertheless, for event-driven traders, two main strategies are worth considering:
- Pre-Earnings: Assess the historical probabilities and take a position ahead of the earnings release.
- Post-Earnings: Analyze the immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings release, then adjust your position accordingly.
At present, analysts predict that Deere will report earnings of $4.59 per share on revenues of $10.33 billion. This would represent a decline compared to the same quarter last year, when the company posted earnings of $6.29 per share on revenues of $11.39 billion.
Fundamentally, the company boasts a current market capitalization of $138 billion. Over the past twelve months, Deere generated $44 billion in revenue, yielding an operating profit of $9.4 billion and a net income of $5.7 billion.
That said, if you are looking for upside potential with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Eli Lilly: 50% Upside For LLY Stock?
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Deere’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- Over the past five years, there are 20 recorded earnings data points, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns. In total, positive 1D returns occurred roughly 50% of the time.
- This percentage remains consistent at 50% if we examine data from the last three years instead of five.
- The median of the 10 positive returns is 5.2%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -3.1%.
Further data on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings, along with the statistics, are summarized in the table below.
DE 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
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Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify the pair exhibiting the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D show the strongest correlation, a trader may position themselves “long” for the subsequent five days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a more recent 3-year history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.
DE Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
At times, the performance of peers can impact the stock’s reaction post-earnings. In fact, the market may begin pricing in this influence even before the earnings are disclosed. Here is some historical data comparing the post-earnings performance of Deere stock with that of peers that reported earnings just ahead of Deere. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns. Additionally, see – Buy or Sell DE Stock?
DE Correlation With Peer Earnings
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