S&P 500 semi reversed yesterday, but the bounce left quite something to be desired . The premarket moves were promising , and unemployment claims behaving (I look for these to start rising later during Mar and Apr) was all that was required for a daily ES outlook resulting in 3,980 break.
Instead, those 211k (essentially my prediction) are being hesitantly taken as if leading to Fed dialing back tightening – nothing can be further from the truth as Powell made clear that the costs of not fighting inflation are greater than those of fighting inflation .
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No, short-term yields haven’t yet peaked, and I’m unmoved by Bank of Canada (often the bellwether as it was among the first CBs to embark on tightening) pausing its hikes.
Stocks are thus facing 4,015 resistance , and I’m not looking for a bearish day today really. Any fine upper knot on solid volume (approximating Monday) ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls (lagging indicator unlike unemployment claims) in s&p 500 , is more than welcome today as opposed to dealing with 4,045 again on daily tech and financials joint strength (chart courtesy of ).
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