The Scott Fish Bowl 12 is well underway, which marks the unofficial start of the 2022 fantasy football season. It also means we are in July and it is time for some updated dynasty trade values.
Not a ton has changed in the dynasty world since the June edition was generated. The biggest piece of news was the Baker Mayfield trade from the Browns to the Panthers. Mayfield’s value already seemed to assume a trade, so he did not move a ton. Neither D.J. Moore nor Christian McCaffery had a ton of room to move up. The value in that offense seems to be pretty static. Maybe it is time to send a low-ball offer for Terrace Marshall or maybe even check the wavier wire.
Based on some feedback, I tweaked the algorithm a little to increase the top end a bit while keeping most of the other places about the same. I think the difference between the top players and the middle or late guys should be just a little more. I like where we are now.
Let’s get right into it! Here is the chart:
Based on popular request, here is a downloadable Excel sheet version:
What is different with this chart?
I was able to partner here with the experts at The Athletic to make a special edition of the dynasty trade value chart. I did this by generating exclusive values based on the experts here and then comparing those values vs. my published market (ECR) version of the chart. The ECR (+/-) column can be used to find which players the experts here want you to buy or sell and help identify some key market deficiencies! That way you can really get an edge on your league mates.
For example, Malik Willis’ trade value is calculated to be 34, a full 14 points higher than consensus! That is a lot of potential value you might be able to gain if you can trade for him at a value of 20. Use this chart to look for those buys or sells and make some offers.
How to use a trade value chart
This is a tool to make your life easier! The left-most column is the assigned trade value for a row. All players and picks in a row have the same value and, in theory, could be traded for each other. Players are separated into columns by position. The ECR column is calculated based on my “Reddit Adjusted” column that I publish on Patreon, Twitter, and Reddit. Plus (+) means the trade value here is above ECR and minus (-) is the inverse.
If you are looking at larger trades (2-for-2 or 3-for-3) you just sum the sides of each trade to get an idea of fairness. Make sure to account for consolidating depth and trying to acquire stud players by overpaying. These are really a guideline to look for reasonable trades.
How I make these charts
The backbone of my model is seeded by expert consensus ranks that I aggregate from as many published sources as I can find. The goal is to try and average as much of the market as I can into one analysis. I feed the ranks into my database (clean up the names) and average positional ranks before running them through my model. Next, I assign rank-based trade values built on historic values as a function of positional scarcity. In all my models, running backs are the backbone, and then WRs, TEs, and QB values are determined based on a function of nearby RB values. The dynasty rookie picks are a lot more complex. So, I manually go through crowdsource data (Twitter polls, KTC, etc.) and create a high- and low-value range for groups of picks (early, mid, late). Post-NFL draft, the current year rookie picks get a little easier to add to the chart. I will compare picks to other players at all positions to try and dial in the placement.
The 2023 picks are higher than normal n+1 rookie picks would be due to insane hype. The 2024 picks are about where I would expect n+2 picks to be located. They lose value due to not being relevant for two years. I like scoring points and winning this year.
What trades have you pulled off this offseason?
(Top photo: John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)