S&P 500 Weekly Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 has fallen during the course of the week to reach the 41 to 50 level. The 4150 level is an area where we have seen a lot of action recently, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we had a bit of a bounce from there. The weekly candlestick looks a little bit like a hammer, so it suggests that we could rally to reach the 50 Week EMA. If we can break above there, then I think we go looking toward the 4500 level, which is the top of an overall consolidation area.
All things being equal, we will have to deal with inflation, a very hawkish Federal Reserve, and of course other things such as a negative GDP figure. It could be that some Wall Street traders are starting to think that the Federal Reserve may loosen up a bit, and if that is going to be the case then Wall Street will celebrate. Furthermore, it is also worth noting that Friday was an options expiration day so that is something that you should also pay some attention to.
Markets continue to be very noisy, and I think that will continue to be the case going forward. I do think that you need to keep your position size relatively small, at least until we get some type of trend working again. While things have been rather negative over the last month or so, the reality is that we have not fallen to a fresh, new low, at least not quite yet. Looking at this chart, it looks as if we are still in a bit of a “holding pattern” from the longer-term standpoint.
S&P 500 Forecast Video 02.05.22
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