Back-to-back up March Triple Witching Week (TWW) and Week After are rare but bullish – occurring only 5 times on the S&P 500 in the last 39 years since Triple Witching was created in April 1982. The subsequent last 9 months of year were up 4 out of 5 of those times for an average gain of 14.6% from the end of March to the end of the year.
Stocks are due for two up weeks in a row. The Dow has been down 13 of the last 18 weeks. S&P 500 has been down 11 of the last 18 weeks and NASDAQ has been down 12 of the last 18 weeks. The market (Dow, S&P and NASDAQ combined) has not been up back-to-back weeks since the first week of February and that was the only time during the last 19 weeks since the week before NASDAQ’s all-time high on November 19, 2021.
End of March weakness has been apparent over the last 30 years with the S&P 500 down the last 3 or 4 days of March in 19 of those last 30 years. But over the past 12 years S&P 500 has been up the last 4 days of March 11 times and the last 3 days up 8 of 12.
Stock options, index options, index futures, and single-stock (and ETF) futures all expire at the same time four times each year on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. This event is referred to as Quadruple Witching by some. We prefer to call it Triple Witching in the Stock Trader’s Almanac (2022 page 108), as single-stock futures are a tiny market.